Covid 19
Yet another black swan took off from her nest!
History and societies do not crawl. They make jumps. They go from fracture to fracture, with a few vibrations in between. Yet we (and historians) like to believe in the predictable, small incremental progression.
The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Simple time-frame comparative analysis
- Most thought we wont see (anytime soon) another global black swan since the last one only took off in 2008: the financial crises.
- Patterns and trends would have reassured us that it would take over two decades for humanity to ‘prepare’ the creation of another global malicious event. Here is one (quantitative) way of reasoning:
- after experiencing 40 million loss of lives in WW1, it took humans 21 years, 2 months and 9 days to strike out WW2 which led to 60 millions casualties
- it took a nominated chancellor 6 years, 8 months and 2 days to invade another European country (though turmoil began in mid 1930 with border events between Japan, the Soviet Union and Mongolia)
Leaders acted hastily following trends and interpreting miscellany of data in a quest for ubiquitous report between surfing the economy wave and lockdown.
(Some) politicians, statisticians, media analysts and any other citizens, including influencers, minimized the gravity by comparisons to other data showcasing that the % of deaths by flu, cancer, HIV, etc. is higher that of Covid 19.
Wasn’t and still isn’t it a lack of social responsibility notably on behalf of politicians not to frame the moral problems:
1. Who decides who lives and who dies once, at national level, intensive care units (the only possible protocol) have reached their maximum potential?
2. What is the norm when medical triage is no longer possible since doctors confront nothing but life strengthening situations?
Rate us
sensenthink 